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Old Farmer''s Almanac predicts US weather for fall 2025

Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts a Chilly, Wet Fall 2025 for Much of the United States

As autumn approaches in 2025, Americans across the country are turning to one of the nation's oldest and most trusted sources for weather insights: the Old Farmer's Almanac. In its latest edition, the venerable publication has released its long-range forecasts for the fall season, spanning September through November 2025. Drawing on a blend of historical data, astronomical patterns, and time-tested formulas, the Almanac paints a picture of a season dominated by cooler-than-average temperatures and above-normal precipitation in many regions. This could mean a vibrant display of fall foliage but also potential challenges for outdoor activities, agriculture, and travel. While the Almanac's predictions are not infallible, they offer a fascinating glimpse into what Mother Nature might have in store, often with surprising accuracy rooted in centuries of observation.

Founded in 1792, the Old Farmer's Almanac has been a staple for farmers, gardeners, and weather enthusiasts for over two centuries. Its forecasting method remains somewhat mysterious, famously described as a "secret formula" devised by founder Robert B. Thomas. This formula incorporates solar activity, tidal action, and planetary positions, among other factors, to predict weather patterns months or even years in advance. Unlike modern meteorological models that rely on supercomputers and satellite data, the Almanac's approach harkens back to folk wisdom and empirical patterns observed over generations. Critics often question its scientific rigor, pointing out that long-range forecasts can be hit-or-miss, but proponents swear by its track record, claiming an accuracy rate of around 80 percent based on historical verifications. For fall 2025, the Almanac's editors emphasize that their predictions account for broader climatic trends, including the lingering effects of La Niña patterns in the Pacific Ocean, which could influence atmospheric circulation and bring cooler, wetter conditions to parts of the U.S.

Starting with an overview, the Almanac anticipates that the fall of 2025 will be cooler than average across approximately two-thirds of the contiguous United States. This chill is expected to be most pronounced in the northern and central regions, where temperatures could dip 2 to 4 degrees below historical norms. Precipitation, meanwhile, is forecasted to be above average in the Northeast, Midwest, and parts of the South, potentially leading to a soggy season with increased risks of flooding in low-lying areas. Conversely, the West and Southwest may experience drier conditions, exacerbating ongoing drought concerns in states like California and Arizona. These broad strokes set the stage for more detailed regional breakdowns, which the Almanac provides to help readers prepare for everything from harvest schedules to wardrobe choices.

In the Northeast, including states like New York, Pennsylvania, and New England, the Almanac predicts a "brisk and blustery" fall. September is expected to start mild, with average temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70s Fahrenheit, but a sharp cooldown is forecasted by mid-October, bringing highs in the 50s and overnight lows flirting with frost. Precipitation is slated to be plentiful, with rainfall totals 20-30 percent above normal, particularly in coastal areas. This could result in spectacular autumn colors as cooler nights enhance the vibrancy of changing leaves, but it also raises the specter of early snow flurries in higher elevations, such as the Adirondacks or White Mountains. Gardeners are advised to harvest tender crops early to avoid frost damage, while hikers and leaf-peepers might enjoy ideal conditions for outdoor adventures, provided they pack layers and rain gear.

Moving to the Midwest, the heartland is in for what the Almanac calls a "chilly and changeable" season. Regions encompassing Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and the Great Lakes states could see temperatures averaging 3 degrees below normal, with October being the coldest month relative to averages. Expect frequent cold fronts sweeping down from Canada, bringing gusty winds and the possibility of lake-effect snow in November, especially around Lakes Erie and Michigan. Precipitation forecasts point to above-average rain and possibly some early-season snow, which might benefit soil moisture for winter wheat planting but could disrupt fall festivals and football games. The Almanac notes that this pattern aligns with historical cycles influenced by solar minima, potentially leading to a more volatile weather setup with rapid shifts between mild spells and sudden chills.

The South, from Texas to the Carolinas, presents a mixed bag according to the Almanac. While temperatures are predicted to be near or slightly below average—think highs in the 70s dropping to the 60s by November—precipitation could vary widely. The Gulf Coast and Southeast are expected to receive heavier-than-normal rainfall, fueled by tropical moisture remnants, which might increase the risk of flash flooding and delay cotton and peanut harvests. In contrast, parts of the interior South, like Arkansas and Oklahoma, may see drier conditions interspersed with occasional storms. The Almanac warns of potential hurricane activity lingering into early fall, advising coastal residents to stay vigilant. This region's forecast underscores the influence of Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which could steer more moisture inland and contribute to a humid, muggy atmosphere even as temperatures cool.

Out West, the Almanac's outlook leans toward milder temperatures but with significant dryness in many areas. The Pacific Northwest, including Washington and Oregon, is forecasted for near-normal temperatures with above-average rain, providing some relief to wildfire-prone forests after a potentially dry summer. However, California and the Southwest face a "dry and dusty" fall, with temperatures slightly above average and precipitation well below norms. This could worsen drought conditions, impacting water reservoirs and agriculture, such as almond and grape production. The Rocky Mountain states, like Colorado and Utah, are expected to experience cooler-than-average weather with early snow in the higher peaks, benefiting ski resorts but challenging ranchers with potential blizzards. The Almanac highlights how El Niño/La Niña transitions might amplify these patterns, leading to stark contrasts between wetter northern areas and parched southern ones.

Alaska and Hawaii also get mentions in the Almanac's comprehensive forecasts. In Alaska, fall 2025 is predicted to be colder and snowier than usual, with September bringing the first tastes of winter in the interior. This could mean an early start to the aurora viewing season but also travel disruptions from icy roads. Hawaii, on the other hand, is expected to have a relatively mild fall with near-normal temperatures and rainfall, though the Almanac notes a slight uptick in trade wind showers, which might affect tourism and outdoor activities.

Beyond the weather specifics, the Old Farmer's Almanac delves into the broader implications of these forecasts. For agriculture, a cooler, wetter fall could extend growing seasons in some areas but risk crop damage from frost or excessive moisture in others. Homeowners might need to prepare for higher heating bills, while energy providers could see increased demand. The publication also ties its predictions to astronomical events, such as the autumnal equinox on September 22, 2025, and lunar phases that might influence tidal patterns and storm activity. Interestingly, the Almanac compares this forecast to past years, noting similarities to the fall of 2010, which was notably chilly and wet in the East, leading to memorable foliage but also flooding events.

Skeptics of the Almanac often point to modern meteorology's superior short-term accuracy, but its enduring popularity lies in its folksy charm and long-view perspective. In an era of climate change, where extreme weather is becoming more common, the Almanac's predictions serve as a reminder of nature's cycles amid human-induced shifts. Whether you're a farmer planning your harvest, a traveler booking a leaf-peeping trip, or just someone who enjoys pondering the skies, the fall 2025 forecast offers plenty to consider. As the Almanac itself quips in its pages, "Weather is a great metaphor for life—sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad, and there's nothing you can do about it but carry an umbrella." With that wisdom in mind, Americans would do well to heed these insights as they brace for whatever autumn brings.

Read the Full Newsweek Article at:
[ https://www.newsweek.com/old-farmers-almanac-predicts-us-weather-fall-2025-2103388 ]