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China closing in on US as leader in global science: Study

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  Published in Science and Technology on Tuesday, October 28th 2025 at 22:55 GMT by The Straits Times
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China Closing in on the United States as Leader in Global Science

A recent study released in 2024 has highlighted a dramatic shift in the global science landscape: China’s scientific output and influence are narrowing the gap with the United States, and in some metrics, China is now matching or surpassing its northern neighbor. The report draws on data from several major rankings, including the Nature Index 2024 and the Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU), and provides a comprehensive view of how China’s research ecosystem has evolved over the past decade.

Methodology and Key Metrics

The Nature Index, a joint project of the International Society for Science and the publishing house Nature, tracks research output from 100 of the world’s leading scientific journals. Its methodology emphasizes quality over quantity, counting the number of high-impact publications and citations. In its latest 2024 edition, the Index revealed that Chinese institutions accounted for 21 % of all high‑quality papers worldwide, compared to 18 % for the United States. The United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, and South Korea round out the top five.

ARWU, often referred to as the Shanghai Ranking, focuses on five indicators: the number of alumni and staff who have won Nobel Prizes or Fields Medals, the number of highly cited researchers, the number of papers published in Nature and Science, the number of papers indexed in the Science Citation Index-Expanded and Social Science Citation Index, and per capita academic performance. In the 2024 ARWU, China’s cumulative score has risen by 4 % from the previous year, placing it 3rd overall behind the United States and the United Kingdom. The United States still leads in Nobel laureates (27) and highly cited researchers (4,300), but China’s numbers have surged: 13 Nobel laureates and 5,700 highly cited researchers.

The Rise of Chinese Research Institutions

The surge is largely driven by China’s flagship universities, which have consistently climbed the global rankings. Tsinghua University, for example, moved from 29th to 22nd in the 2024 Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings, while Peking University advanced from 34th to 27th. Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Zhejiang University, two of the country’s fastest‑growing research centers, now sit in the top 30 worldwide. These universities have benefited from massive investment in research infrastructure, talent acquisition, and international collaboration programs.

Beyond the top tier, China’s public research institutes, such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Science and Technology’s National Natural Science Foundation, have increased funding for basic science and applied research. The “Made in China 2025” initiative, a government policy aimed at transforming China into a global innovation leader, has also prioritized high‑tech fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology. The result is a noticeable uptick in high‑impact papers and patents filed by Chinese researchers in these emerging domains.

Global Collaborations and Citations

Another significant factor in China’s ascent is its growing participation in international collaborations. The Nature Index report indicates that Chinese scientists co‑authored 15 % of all global high‑quality papers in 2023, a rise from 10 % in 2019. Joint projects with institutions in the United States, Germany, and South Korea have increased the visibility and citation rates of Chinese work. The United States, while still the most cited country in many scientific disciplines, has seen its dominance in certain fields, such as molecular biology and physics, begin to wane as China’s research output in these areas expands.

Citations themselves are a barometer of influence. According to the 2024 Scopus database, Chinese articles are now cited, on average, 18 % more times than their global counterparts. This is a stark contrast to the United States, where the average citation rate has remained stable at 12 % over the past decade.

Policy Implications and Future Outlook

The narrowing gap between China and the United States has sparked renewed discussions among policymakers, university administrators, and industry leaders. In Washington, lawmakers have expressed concerns over “research dominance” and the potential for intellectual property theft, leading to increased scrutiny of joint ventures with Chinese institutions. Conversely, in Beijing, the government has framed the rise as a testament to the country’s strategic investment in science and technology, emphasizing that “knowledge is power.”

The trend toward greater scientific parity also raises questions about future global research ecosystems. International funding agencies, such as the European Union’s Horizon Europe, are now allocating more resources to projects that include Chinese partners. Meanwhile, the United States is investing in initiatives like the National Science Foundation’s “U.S. National Research Data Infrastructure” to maintain its competitive edge.

The report’s authors predict that if current funding trajectories continue, China could surpass the United States in overall scientific output by the mid‑2030s. However, the United States is likely to retain leadership in innovation ecosystems and research quality, given its robust venture capital environment and strong academic–industry linkages.

Further Reading

• Nature Index 2024 – A detailed breakdown of country‑level rankings and journal performance can be found on the Nature Index website (https://www.nature.com/nature-index). The site provides interactive maps and historical trends that illustrate China’s rapid growth.
• Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2024 – The full list of universities, including their scores in teaching, research, citations, industry income, and international outlook, is available at https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings. The site also offers case studies of Chinese universities’ strategies for global ranking improvement.
• Scopus Citation Analysis 2024 – The Scopus database’s annual citation reports highlight the average citation rates by country and discipline, providing a deeper look at China’s influence in specific research fields.

Conclusion

China’s climb toward the United States in global science is more than a statistic; it is a reflection of decades of strategic investment, policy shifts, and a new generation of researchers. While the United States remains a bastion of research quality and innovation, China’s emergence signals a new era of collaborative competition. The implications span academia, industry, and national security, shaping the trajectory of global scientific progress for years to come.