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Cloud seeding delay explained: Why Delhi's artificial rain is still on hold - the science and the wait behind clouds

  //science-technology.news-articles.net/content/2 .. hold-the-science-and-the-wait-behind-clouds.html
  Published in Science and Technology on Thursday, October 23rd 2025 at 0:11 GMT by moneycontrol.com
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Cloud‑Seeding Delay Explained: Why Delhi’s Artificial Rain Is Still On Hold

Delhi’s chronic water shortage has driven policymakers to explore every possible avenue to augment rainfall, including cloud seeding. Yet, despite the promise of turning the sky into a water‑harvesting asset, the project remains stalled. An in‑depth look at the situation reveals a complex blend of science, policy, logistics, and public expectations that has kept the artificial rain “on hold.”

The Science Behind Cloud Seeding

Cloud seeding is a form of weather modification that encourages the formation of precipitation by dispersing particles into the atmosphere. The most common agents are silver iodide (AgI) and potassium iodide (KI), both of which mimic the crystalline structure of ice. When introduced into warm or cold clouds, these particles act as nucleation sites for water droplets to freeze and grow, eventually falling as rain or snow.

There are two main approaches:

1. Ground‑based seeding – Aircraft or ground stations release seeding material directly into clouds. This method is favored for targeted operations where precise cloud selection is possible.
2. Volcanic ash or salt‑based seeding – Some regions use volcanic ash or sea salt, which can also serve as nucleation points, though they are less efficient than silver iodide.

The technique’s success depends on several variables: cloud type, temperature, humidity, wind patterns, and the density of seed particles. Even with optimal conditions, the enhancement in rainfall is often modest—typically a few percent compared to natural variability.

Delhi’s Water Crisis and the Promise of Artificial Rain

Delhi’s summer months are characterized by extreme heat, high humidity, and an acute scarcity of potable water. The city’s municipal water supply is stretched thin, with over 4.5 million residents relying on a combination of groundwater, surface water, and the National Water Commission’s pipeline network.

In recent years, Delhi’s water authorities announced plans to launch cloud‑seeding trials to supplement the city’s dwindling water resources. The objective: generate a measurable increase in rainfall during peak demand periods, thereby easing the burden on reservoirs and reducing the reliance on water pumped from distant basins.

Why the Delay?

The article examines several key factors that have stalled the project:

1. Regulatory Hurdles
   Cloud seeding requires approvals from multiple agencies, including the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change, and the local municipal authorities. Each body must conduct an environmental impact assessment (EIA) to ensure that seeding materials do not pose health risks or harm ecosystems. The EIA process, combined with inter‑agency coordination, has extended timelines considerably.

2. Equipment Procurement Issues
   Delhi has sought specialized aircraft capable of carrying seeding payloads. The procurement of such aircraft, coupled with the need for on‑board seeding systems and real‑time monitoring equipment, has proven logistically challenging. Delays in sourcing silver iodide and securing licensing agreements have further slowed progress.

3. Scientific Uncertainty
   Cloud seeding’s effectiveness is not guaranteed. Pilot studies in other Indian cities, such as Hyderabad and Chennai, have produced mixed results, with some trials reporting negligible rainfall gains. The unpredictability of weather patterns in the Delhi region—particularly the influence of the Thar Desert heat dome—raises doubts about whether the seeding would produce meaningful results.

4. Public Perception and Media Scrutiny
   The media has been skeptical, pointing out that previous weather‑modification experiments in India have not yielded the promised benefits. This skepticism has prompted the government to adopt a cautious stance, preferring to gather more evidence before committing to a large‑scale rollout.

5. Cost‑Benefit Analysis
   Preliminary cost estimates for a full‑scale cloud‑seeding program in Delhi run into the hundreds of crores. When compared against potential gains—a modest percentage increase in rainfall—the economic viability remains questionable. The IMD’s own cost‑effectiveness studies suggest that investing in water‑saving infrastructure may offer a higher return on investment.

Comparative Insights from Global Cloud‑Seeding Experiments

The article also contextualizes Delhi’s situation by citing global examples:

• United States – In Nevada, the Nevada Desert Research Center runs cloud‑seeding operations that have, on average, increased rainfall by 5–10% during the monsoon season. However, the program’s benefits are offset by the high operational cost.
• Australia – The state of Victoria has conducted trials that show modest gains in rainfall, but the long‑term sustainability of the program remains debated.
• Japan – Seasonal cloud‑seeding has been integrated into the national weather‑modification strategy, with a focus on reducing drought risk in the agricultural belt.

These international cases highlight that while cloud seeding can contribute to water management, it is rarely a silver bullet.

Future Directions for Delhi

The article points to several paths forward for Delhi:

1. Pilot Projects in Controlled Settings
   Rather than an immediate large‑scale deployment, the government may initiate a short‑term pilot in a specific geographic corridor. This approach would allow the IMD to gather data on seeding effectiveness under Delhi’s unique climatic conditions.

2. Collaborative Research Initiatives
   Partnering with research institutes such as the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi or the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology could facilitate the development of more efficient seeding protocols and advanced monitoring systems.

3. Alternative Water Augmentation Measures
   The article emphasizes diversifying strategies: building rain‑water harvesting structures, expanding groundwater recharge projects, and implementing stricter water usage regulations for industries.

4. Public Engagement and Transparency
   Regular communication with citizens about the scientific basis, expected outcomes, and cost implications could help build public trust and mitigate skepticism.

Conclusion

Delhi’s aspiration to harness cloud seeding as a tool against water scarcity is grounded in sound scientific principles but hampered by a confluence of regulatory, logistical, and economic obstacles. The delay reflects a prudent, evidence‑driven approach: ensuring that any intervention will genuinely benefit the city’s water balance without imposing undue environmental or financial burdens. As Delhi continues to grapple with climate‑induced water challenges, the city’s experience underscores the need for a balanced, multi‑pronged strategy that integrates weather modification with sustainable water governance.