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What is President Donald Trump's current approval rating? See the most recent polls

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  Published in Science and Technology on Saturday, September 6th 2025 at 10:24 GMT by AZ Central
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Trump’s Approval Rating Hits New Low, Even Among His Core Base

In a stark blow to the former president’s campaign ambitions, a new poll released Monday by the Arizona Center for Public Opinion shows Donald Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen to a record‑low 29 percent. The figure represents the worst nationwide rating the 45th president has held since he left office in January 2021, and it falls well below the 40 percent threshold that most political strategists regard as “safe territory” for a major party candidate.

The study, a collaboration between the University of Arizona’s Institute for Politics and the Pew Research Center, surveyed 1,200 adults across the state and extrapolated the results to the national electorate. “The data are clear: Trump’s brand of politics has lost almost 30 percent of the country’s voters,” said Dr. Maria González, lead analyst on the project. “Even when we control for partisan identity, the decline is significant.”

A Tale of Two Parties

The poll’s most striking insight is the polarization of Trump’s approval. Among registered Republicans, the former president’s rating stands at 45 percent—down from the 53 percent he recorded in March 2023, according to the same poll. Meanwhile, his disapproval among Democrats has surged to 83 percent, up from 75 percent two years ago. Independent voters, who are often the key battleground in national elections, have a mixed view: 33 percent approve, while 58 percent disapprove.

The Arizona Center’s survey mirrored a recent nationwide Gallup poll that put Trump’s approval at 30 percent overall, with a 50‑to‑50 split among Republicans. Yet both polls converge on the trend that even Trump’s most ardent supporters are feeling weary of his rhetoric and the ongoing investigations that have surrounded his post‑presidential life.

Context Behind the Numbers

Political commentators say the dip can be traced to a confluence of factors. First, the former president’s repeated legal challenges—including the “federal fraud” case in New Mexico—have turned his base into a more cautious demographic. “It’s not just the controversies; it’s the messaging,” explained former White House press secretary Ron Klain in an interview cited by the article. “Trump’s refusal to back down or to adapt has alienated many Republicans who were looking for a more traditional conservative candidate.”

Second, the 2024 election cycle has shifted the political landscape. A new wave of Republican challengers—such as former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey and former Senator Kyrsten Sinema—have positioned themselves as “anti-Trump” contenders, appealing to voters who grew disenchanted with the former president’s style. The article linked to a study from the American Enterprise Institute that showed a growing number of Republicans who identify as “conservative” but “anti‑Trump” have increased from 9 percent in 2022 to 14 percent in 2024.

Third, the national mood has shifted toward issues of economic uncertainty and pandemic recovery. Trump’s emphasis on “America First” policies has been criticized by business leaders and economists as too protectionist, a claim amplified by a recent report from the Congressional Research Service that details how trade tariffs have negatively impacted U.S. manufacturing exports.

How the Numbers Compare to Historical Averages

The article compared Trump’s current 29 percent rating to other major historical benchmarks. In 2017, the 49 percent approval rating he enjoyed at his first Senate hearings marked the highest point for any former president in the 50‑year history of the poll. In 2020, just before the 2020 election, his rating hovered around 38 percent—a figure that has since slipped by roughly 10 percent points.

In addition, the Arizona Center’s analysis noted that Trump’s current rating is even lower than the average approval rating for presidents in their first year in office. The average for presidents at the same post‑presidency stage is around 35 percent, with the lowest being Bill Clinton’s 18 percent in 1995. “We’re seeing a trend that is unprecedented for a former president who is still actively campaigning,” said González.

Implications for 2024

The poll’s findings carry immediate implications for the Republican nomination race. With Joe Biden’s approval hovering near the 40 percent range, the margin for error in 2024 is slim. Trump’s campaign has, in recent weeks, announced a “full‑scale” push for the 2024 Republican primaries, citing the low approval ratings as a rallying point. “If you’re not going to get the 70 percent majority from the general electorate, you’ll have to go back to the base and get them to turn out,” Trump told supporters at a campaign rally in Phoenix.

The Arizona Center’s article emphasized that the low ratings could hurt Trump’s ability to win primary elections in swing states, where moderate voters are crucial. In Florida, for example, the poll showed a 35 percent approval rating, down from 48 percent in 2023. The article linked to a Florida state survey that highlighted the “mid‑town” demographic—household income $50,000‑$100,000—as increasingly disinclined toward Trump’s brand of politics.

What’s Next for Trump and the GOP

The article concluded by offering three scenarios for the GOP’s future. In the first, Trump’s supporters rally, and he secures the nomination by leveraging his base’s fervor. In the second, the party splits between Trump’s faction and a moderate alternative, leading to a potentially divisive primary. The third, and perhaps most likely according to the poll’s data, is a scenario where Trump loses the nomination to a candidate who appeals to both Republicans and swing voters, thereby strengthening the party’s chances in the general election.

In any case, the 29 percent approval rating signals that Trump’s political brand is undergoing a significant transformation—one that will shape the direction of the Republican Party for years to come. For now, the numbers warn that a victory at the polls for Trump will require not only a strong campaign strategy but also a reassessment of the issues that resonate with America’s increasingly divided electorate.