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Is SoFi Stock a Buy Following Another Better-Than-Expected Quarter? | The Motley Fool

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  The consumer bank is growing by leaps and bounds, but continuing at its present pace could become a challenge.


Is SoFi Stock a Buy After Yet Another Strong Quarter?


In the ever-evolving world of fintech, few companies have captured investor attention quite like SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI). The digital banking and lending platform, which started as a student loan refinancing service, has grown into a full-fledged financial services powerhouse. With its latest quarterly earnings report once again surpassing Wall Street expectations, many investors are asking: Is now the time to buy SoFi stock? Let's dive deep into the details of the report, the company's trajectory, and the broader market context to assess whether this fintech darling deserves a spot in your portfolio.

First, a quick recap of SoFi's journey. Founded in 2011, SoFi initially focused on refinancing student loans for high-earning millennials. Over the years, it expanded into personal loans, credit cards, investing, and even banking services after acquiring a national bank charter in 2022. This evolution has positioned SoFi as a one-stop-shop for personal finance, appealing to a tech-savvy demographic that prefers mobile apps over traditional brick-and-mortar banks. The company's membership has exploded, reaching over 8 million users by mid-2024, a testament to its aggressive marketing and user-friendly platform.

Now, onto the star of the show: SoFi's most recent quarterly earnings. Released in late July, the results were nothing short of impressive. Revenue came in at $598 million, marking a 20% increase year-over-year and beating analyst estimates by a comfortable margin. This growth was driven by several key segments. The lending business, which includes personal, student, and home loans, contributed significantly, with origination volumes up 15% from the previous year. Personal loans, in particular, saw robust demand, fueled by consumers seeking to consolidate high-interest debt amid elevated interest rates.

But it's not just about top-line growth. SoFi has been laser-focused on profitability, a critical shift after years of operating at a loss. The company reported net income of $17 million, or $0.01 per share, reversing a net loss from the same quarter a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA, a key metric for growth-oriented tech firms, surged 80% to $137 million. This profitability milestone is the fourth consecutive quarter of positive net income, signaling that SoFi is maturing from a high-growth startup into a sustainable business. Management attributed this to improved operational efficiency, including better credit underwriting and cost controls.

Deposits were another highlight, growing to $23 billion, up 16% quarter-over-quarter. This influx of low-cost deposits is crucial for SoFi's banking model, as it reduces reliance on expensive wholesale funding. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in recent years, SoFi has benefited from higher net interest margins, which stood at 5.85% in the quarter—impressively high for a digital bank. The company also noted that 90% of its deposits are now insured, providing stability and attracting more conservative customers.

Membership growth continues to be a powerhouse driver. SoFi added 643,000 new members in the quarter, bringing the total to 8.8 million. This represents a 37% year-over-year increase, outpacing many peers in the fintech space. What's particularly encouraging is the cross-selling success: The average member now uses 1.5 products, up from previous quarters. This stickiness is vital in a competitive landscape where users can easily switch apps. SoFi's strategy of offering everything from checking accounts to robo-advising under one roof is paying off, creating a moat against rivals like Chime, Ally, or even traditional giants like JPMorgan Chase.

Looking ahead, SoFi's guidance is optimistic. Management raised its full-year revenue forecast to between $2.425 billion and $2.465 billion, implying about 18% growth. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also hiked to $605-$615 million, suggesting continued margin expansion. CEO Anthony Noto emphasized the company's focus on diversifying revenue streams, with non-lending segments like technology platforms and financial services now accounting for 42% of adjusted net revenue, up from 38% last year. This diversification reduces exposure to interest rate fluctuations, a key risk for lenders.

Of course, no investment analysis is complete without addressing the risks. SoFi operates in a highly competitive fintech arena, where regulatory scrutiny is intensifying. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has been active in overseeing digital lenders, and any missteps could lead to fines or operational hurdles. Additionally, economic uncertainty looms large. If the U.S. enters a recession, loan defaults could rise, impacting SoFi's asset quality. The company's credit loss provisions increased slightly in the quarter, though they remain manageable at 1.5% of loans. Interest rate cuts, which the Fed has signaled may begin soon, could compress net interest margins, potentially slowing profitability gains.

Valuation is another hot topic. At the time of the earnings release, SoFi stock traded around $7.50 per share, giving it a market cap of about $8 billion. On a price-to-sales basis, it sits at roughly 3.3 times forward revenue, which is reasonable compared to high-growth tech peers but higher than traditional banks. Bulls argue that SoFi's growth potential justifies a premium; after all, it's expanding at a clip that legacy banks can only dream of. Bears, however, point to the stock's volatility—it's down over 70% from its 2021 peak amid the broader fintech sell-off. The path to consistent profitability is still young, and any macroeconomic headwinds could derail momentum.

From a strategic perspective, SoFi's investments in technology are noteworthy. The company has been building out its Galileo platform, which provides backend services to other fintechs, generating fee-based revenue. This B2B arm grew 12% year-over-year, adding a layer of stability. Moreover, SoFi's push into international markets, though nascent, could open new growth avenues. Partnerships, like the one with the NBA for sponsorships, enhance brand visibility and attract younger users.

Investor sentiment post-earnings was mixed but generally positive. The stock jumped 10% on the day of the release, reflecting relief over the beat-and-raise quarter. Analysts from firms like Piper Sandler and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintained buy ratings, with price targets ranging from $8 to $10. They cite SoFi's ability to capture market share from incumbents as a long-term tailwind. However, some caution that the stock may remain range-bound until broader economic clarity emerges.

So, is SoFi stock a buy? It depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance. For long-term growth investors, the answer leans toward yes. SoFi is executing well on its vision of disrupting traditional banking, with accelerating membership, diversified revenue, and improving profitability. The latest quarter reinforces that the company is not just surviving but thriving in a challenging environment. If you believe in the shift toward digital finance—and the data suggests it's inevitable—SoFi could be a compelling addition.

That said, it's not without risks. Short-term traders might want to wait for more favorable entry points, perhaps if the stock dips on market volatility. Diversification is key; don't bet the farm on any single fintech play. Overall, with its strong fundamentals and innovative edge, SoFi appears poised for further gains. As the company continues to scale, it could very well reward patient shareholders handsomely.

In summary, this earnings report is another feather in SoFi's cap, building on a string of positive quarters. Whether it translates to outsized stock returns will depend on execution and external factors, but the underlying business looks robust. Investors eyeing the fintech revolution should keep SoFi on their radar— it might just be the disruptor that sticks around for the long haul. (Word count: 1,048)

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