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A loss for Ishiba could worsen political instability in the face of US tariffs and rising prices

Ishiba's Precarious Position: Electoral Risks and Global Pressures Threaten Japan's Stability

In the high-stakes world of Japanese politics, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba finds himself at a critical juncture. Just weeks after assuming office, Ishiba has called for a snap general election on October 27, 2024, a bold move aimed at securing a fresh mandate for his leadership. However, recent polls and expert analyses suggest that this gamble could backfire spectacularly. A potential loss or even a weakened majority for Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition could plunge Japan into deeper political instability, exacerbating challenges from external threats such as impending U.S. tariffs under a possible second Trump administration, escalating tensions with China, and North Korea's missile provocations. This scenario not only jeopardizes Ishiba's tenure but also raises broader questions about Japan's ability to navigate an increasingly volatile global landscape.

Ishiba, a veteran politician known for his hawkish views on defense and rural revitalization, ascended to the premiership in early October 2024 following a contentious LDP leadership contest. He succeeded Fumio Kishida, whose administration was marred by scandals involving unreported political funds and slush funds linked to party factions. Ishiba's victory was seen as a breath of fresh air, with his promises to reform the LDP, boost regional economies, and strengthen Japan's military posture resonating with some voters. Yet, his decision to dissolve the lower house of parliament and call an election mere days into his term has been criticized as hasty. Critics argue that Ishiba is seeking to capitalize on a brief honeymoon period before public disillusionment sets in, but opposition parties and analysts warn that voter fatigue with the LDP's long dominance—spanning nearly seven decades with only brief interruptions—could lead to significant setbacks.

The electoral landscape is fraught with uncertainty. The LDP, in coalition with its junior partner Komeito, currently holds a comfortable majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives. To maintain control, they need at least 233 seats. Pre-election surveys from outlets like NHK and Asahi Shimbun indicate that while the LDP might retain the most seats, it could fall short of a majority on its own, forcing greater reliance on Komeito or even negotiations with smaller parties. The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), led by Yoshihiko Noda, is positioning itself as a viable alternative, hammering the LDP on issues like inflation, stagnant wages, and the aforementioned funding scandals. Other parties, including the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People, are also vying for protest votes, potentially fragmenting the electorate.

A loss for Ishiba—defined not just as losing the premiership but as failing to secure a stable governing majority—could trigger a cascade of instability. In Japan's parliamentary system, the prime minister is elected by the Diet, so a weakened LDP might lead to internal revolts or coalition fractures. Historical precedents abound: In 2009, the LDP suffered a historic defeat, leading to three years of opposition rule under the Democratic Party of Japan, a period marked by policy gridlock and frequent leadership changes. More recently, Kishida's own resignation came amid plummeting approval ratings. If Ishiba's coalition loses its majority, Japan could face a hung parliament, prolonged negotiations, or even another election, delaying critical policy decisions at a time when decisiveness is paramount.

Compounding these domestic risks are formidable external pressures, chief among them the specter of U.S. tariffs. With the U.S. presidential election looming on November 5, 2024, a victory for Donald Trump—who has pledged aggressive trade policies, including tariffs on imports to protect American industries—poses a direct threat to Japan's export-dependent economy. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum, citing national security concerns, and threatened even broader measures on automobiles. Japan, the world's third-largest economy, relies heavily on exports to the U.S., particularly in sectors like automotive manufacturing (Toyota, Honda) and electronics. A new round of tariffs could shave off significant GDP growth, with estimates from economists suggesting a potential hit of 0.5% to 1% annually if tariffs reach 10-20% on key goods.

Ishiba has acknowledged this risk, emphasizing the need for a strong Japan-U.S. alliance while preparing contingency plans. In recent speeches, he has advocated for bolstering domestic industries and diversifying trade partners through frameworks like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). However, political instability could undermine these efforts. A fragmented government might struggle to negotiate effectively with Washington, especially if Trump demands concessions on trade imbalances or defense spending. Japan already contributes substantially to U.S. military bases under the alliance, but Trump has repeatedly criticized allies for not paying enough, potentially linking tariffs to security pacts.

Beyond tariffs, regional security dynamics add layers of complexity. China's assertive actions in the East and South China Seas, including frequent incursions near the Senkaku Islands (administered by Japan but claimed by China), demand a unified Japanese response. Ishiba, a proponent of revising Japan's pacifist constitution to allow for a more proactive military, has pledged to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, in line with NATO standards. Yet, electoral setbacks could stall these reforms, leaving Japan vulnerable. Similarly, North Korea's recent missile tests, including intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S., heighten the urgency for robust deterrence. Ishiba's administration has coordinated with the U.S. and South Korea on missile defense, but internal political chaos could erode Japan's credibility as a reliable partner.

Economically, Japan faces headwinds that a unstable government would only worsen. Inflation, driven by a weak yen and global energy prices, has eroded household purchasing power, with real wages declining for much of the past year. Ishiba's platform includes measures to address rural depopulation and support small businesses, but implementing them requires parliamentary approval and fiscal resources. The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hikes, aimed at curbing inflation, have added market volatility. If the election results in a minority government, passing budgets or stimulus packages could become arduous, potentially leading to economic stagnation or even recession.

Public sentiment plays a pivotal role in this drama. Approval ratings for Ishiba's cabinet hover around 50%, according to Jiji Press polls, but dissatisfaction with the LDP's handling of scandals lingers. The party's slush fund controversy, which involved underreporting income from fundraising events, has fueled calls for transparency and reform. Ishiba has vowed to dissolve scandal-tainted factions within the LDP, but skeptics question his commitment, given his own past affiliations. Opposition leaders like Noda have capitalized on this, promising cleaner governance and policies focused on social welfare, such as expanding child care support amid Japan's aging population crisis.

Analysts from think tanks like the Japan Center for International Exchange warn that prolonged instability could have ripple effects beyond Japan. As a key U.S. ally and a linchpin in Indo-Pacific security, a weakened Tokyo might embolden adversaries like China and North Korea. Economically, disruptions in Japan's supply chains—critical for global tech and automotive industries—could reverberate worldwide. In the face of U.S. tariffs, a stable Japanese government is essential for coordinated responses, perhaps through multilateral forums like the G7 or Quad (comprising Japan, U.S., Australia, and India).

In conclusion, the October 27 election represents a make-or-break moment for Ishiba. A decisive win could solidify his leadership, enabling him to tackle tariffs, security threats, and domestic reforms with authority. Conversely, a loss or narrow victory might usher in an era of uncertainty, where coalition horse-trading and policy paralysis hinder Japan's progress. As the world watches, the outcome will not only shape Ishiba's legacy but also influence the balance of power in Asia and the resilience of global trade networks. With so much at stake, Japanese voters face a choice between continuity with the LDP's experienced but blemished rule and the untested promise of change, all against a backdrop of international turbulence that demands steady hands at the helm.

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