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Japan''s governing coalition likely to lose upper house election, exit polls show

Exit Polls Indicate Japan's Ruling Coalition Poised to Lose Majority in Pivotal Election

Tokyo, Japan – In a stunning turn of events that could reshape Japan's political landscape, exit polls from Sunday's general election suggest that the long-dominant ruling coalition, led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is on the verge of losing its majority in the House of Representatives. This development, if confirmed by official results, would mark a significant setback for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his allies, potentially ushering in an era of coalition-building and policy uncertainty in the world's third-largest economy.

The election, called unexpectedly by Ishiba just weeks after he assumed office in October 2024 following the resignation of his predecessor amid a series of scandals, was seen as a referendum on the LDP's handling of economic stagnation, rising inflation, and a slush fund controversy that has eroded public trust. Exit polls conducted by major broadcasters such as NHK and TV Asahi projected that the LDP and its junior partner, Komeito, would secure between 180 and 220 seats in the 465-seat lower house, falling short of the 233 needed for a simple majority. This shortfall would force the coalition to seek alliances with smaller parties or face the prospect of a minority government, a scenario not seen since the LDP's brief ousting in 2009.

Opposition parties, particularly the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), appeared poised for substantial gains. Exit polls indicated the CDP could win up to 150 seats, a significant increase from its current 98, capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with the ruling party's policies. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, a former prime minister, hailed the preliminary results as a "clear message from the people" against corruption and economic mismanagement. "The Japanese people are tired of the same old politics," Noda told reporters outside a polling station in Chiba Prefecture. "This is an opportunity for real change, for policies that put families first and address the cost-of-living crisis."

The roots of this electoral upheaval trace back to a confluence of domestic and international pressures. The LDP, which has governed Japan almost uninterrupted since 1955, has been plagued by scandals in recent years. A major slush fund scandal involving unreported political donations rocked the party in late 2023 and early 2024, leading to the indictment of several lawmakers and the resignation of key cabinet members. Prime Minister Ishiba, who took over in a bid to restore confidence, promised reforms including stricter campaign finance laws and economic stimulus measures. However, critics argue these pledges came too late, as public approval ratings for his administration hovered around 30% leading into the election.

Economic woes have further fueled discontent. Japan has grappled with sluggish growth, exacerbated by the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and the war in Ukraine, which drove up energy prices. Inflation, which hit a 40-year high in 2023, has squeezed household budgets, with real wages declining for over two years. The government's response, including a ¥20 trillion ($130 billion) stimulus package announced in September 2024, failed to resonate with voters facing rising costs for essentials like food and utilities. In rural areas, where the LDP traditionally draws strong support, farmers expressed frustration over agricultural policies that they say favor large corporations over smallholders.

Demographic challenges also loomed large in the campaign. Japan's aging population and shrinking workforce have strained social security systems, with the LDP proposing modest increases in pension contributions and immigration reforms. Opposition parties, however, pushed for more aggressive measures, such as expanding childcare support to boost birth rates and integrating foreign workers more seamlessly into society. Voter turnout, estimated at around 55%, was slightly higher than in the 2021 election, reflecting heightened engagement amid these issues. Young voters, in particular, turned out in greater numbers, with many citing climate change and gender equality as key concerns. Exit polls showed that among those under 30, support for the LDP dropped sharply, with many shifting to progressive parties like the Japanese Communist Party or the upstart Reiwa Shinsengumi.

Internationally, the election's outcome could have far-reaching implications. Japan, a key U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific, has ramped up defense spending under the LDP to counter threats from China and North Korea. Ishiba, a defense hawk, advocated for revising Japan's pacifist constitution to allow for more proactive military engagement. A weakened LDP might complicate these efforts, potentially leading to delays in joint exercises with the U.S. or procurement of advanced weaponry. Analysts worry that political instability could undermine Japan's role in regional alliances like the Quad (comprising Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India), especially as tensions rise over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Market reactions were swift and negative. The Nikkei 225 index futures plummeted 3% in after-hours trading following the exit poll announcements, reflecting investor fears of policy gridlock. Currency traders pushed the yen lower against the dollar, anticipating a more dovish fiscal approach from a possible opposition-led government. "This is a wake-up call for the LDP," said Hiroshi Yamamoto, a political analyst at the University of Tokyo. "They've taken their dominance for granted, but voters are demanding accountability. If the coalition loses its majority, we'll see intense negotiations, possibly resulting in a patchwork government that struggles to pass bold reforms."

Historical context underscores the rarity of this moment. The LDP's last major defeat came in 2009, when the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) swept to power amid economic turmoil following the global financial crisis. That administration lasted only three years, plagued by internal divisions and the 2011 Fukushima disaster, paving the way for the LDP's return under Shinzo Abe in 2012. Abe's "Abenomics" policies of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms revitalized the economy but left lingering issues like income inequality and labor shortages unaddressed.

In this election, gender dynamics also played a role. Women, who make up over half of the electorate, expressed frustration with the LDP's slow progress on gender equality. Japan ranks 125th in the World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Report, with female representation in parliament at just 10%. Opposition parties fielded more female candidates, and exit polls showed stronger support among women for parties advocating work-life balance reforms and anti-harassment measures.

As votes are tallied overnight, all eyes are on key battleground districts in urban centers like Tokyo and Osaka, where tight races could tip the balance. If the exit polls hold, Ishiba may face calls to resign, triggering another leadership contest within the LDP. Potential successors include figures like Sanae Takaichi, a conservative nationalist, or Taro Kono, known for his reformist stance on digitalization.

Regardless of the final outcome, this election signals a shift in Japanese politics. Voters have sent a clear signal that complacency will no longer be tolerated. For a nation facing demographic decline, economic headwinds, and geopolitical risks, the coming weeks of coalition talks will be crucial in determining whether Japan can navigate these challenges with stability or descend into protracted uncertainty.

The opposition's potential rise also raises questions about policy directions. The CDP has pledged to increase taxes on the wealthy to fund social welfare, reverse some of the LDP's defense hikes, and prioritize renewable energy to meet net-zero goals by 2050. Smaller parties like the Japan Innovation Party, which could emerge as kingmakers, advocate for decentralizing power from Tokyo to regional governments, appealing to voters in western Japan.

Experts caution that even if the ruling coalition clings to power through alliances, its mandate will be weakened. "This isn't just about seats; it's about legitimacy," noted Mika Tanaka, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs. "The LDP must address the root causes of discontent, or risk further erosion in future elections."

As Japan awaits official results, the world watches closely. The outcome could influence everything from global supply chains—Japan is a hub for semiconductors and automobiles—to international diplomacy. In an era of uncertainty, this election may prove to be a turning point, challenging the status quo and forcing a reevaluation of what has long been one of Asia's most stable democracies.

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[ https://www.ajc.com/news/2025/07/exit-polls-show-japans-ruling-coalition-is-likely-to-lose-key-election/ ]